by Photocreo | Covidian States of America

Peer-Review Politics

Here’s How You Know We’re Underestimating COVID-19 Deaths, Even Without Hospital Death-Cause Data

The number of dead Americans is so dramatic that you don’t need the hospital cause of death data to see we’re under-counting deaths.

Claims that hospitals receive more money for COVID-19 deaths are true, but it doesn't show we overestimated cases. Both assertions are plausible, so let’s walk through the relevant facts.

Then you decide if the deaths are over- or underestimated. As a thoroughly stubborn albeit endearing medical doctor informed me, “garbage in equals garbage out,” so we’ll also discuss the source and quality of the data.

Let’s look at all-cause death totals. Figure 1 shows excess deaths, deaths above what we would expect in a normal year, attributed to COVID-19, influenza-pneumonia deaths, or deaths from neither.

You can see the excess deaths in the US represented between the black solid and dashed lines.

Figure 1. Estimation of Excess Deaths Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States, Mar to May 2020 | BLUE GREY (bottom): deaths recorded as related to COVID-19 | ORANGE (narrow middle section): deaths from pneumonia and influenza not recorded as related to COVID-19 | BEIGE (top): deaths not recorded as related to COVID-19, pneumonia, or influenza.