Roe v. Wade Overturn Triggers Slight Increase in Abortions

This report discusses potential policy implications of the changes and responsibilities of the states to address predictable harm.

See Disclaimer: InfoEpi Lab does not address arguments for or against the legality, as it is not relevant to this analysis.

In the November 2023 report “The Effects of the Dobbs Decision on Fertility,” researchers Daniel Dench, Mayra Pineda-Torres, and Caitlin Myers looked at the impact of a major U.S. Supreme Court decision on fertility rates across the United States. The Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization case, decided in June 2022, led to the most substantial change in abortion access in the country in over 50 years.

• See the KFF Abortion Policy Tracker for specific policies by state, as Medium does not allow the embed.

This report discusses potential policy implications of the changes and responsibilities of the states to address predictable harm.

Key Findings

• Nationwide Abortion Rates Unchanged or Increased: Despite state bans, the total number of abortions nationwide increased. Abortions increased slightly (by 0.2%). One potential explanation is the increased access to telemedicine abortions and increased access in states where abortion remains legal.
• Increase in Births in States with Abortion Bans: In the 13 states that immediately banned abortion following the Supreme Court’s decision, there was a modest increase in births. The increase was about 2.3% or approximately 32,000 more babies than expected in the first six months of the year. The increase in birth rates was most pronounced among Hispanic women (4.7%) and women aged 20–24 (3.3%). There was no increase in births among teenagers aged 15–19, perhaps because of their greater likelihood to seek abortions via telemedicine.
• Variable Effects Based on Geography: The increase in births varied by state. States like Texas and Mississippi, which are surrounded by other states with abortion bans, saw the largest increase in births. The increased distance from the surrounding states, also banning the procedure, may explain this difference. Distance to a facility was also associated with a demand for self-managed abortion.
• Expansion of Abortion Pills: The use of abortion pills involving mifepristone followed…