What Could the Outbreak Look Like in a Couple of Months? It Depends.
We will add data on the high-risk percentages by state and data on children and Covid-19 to the Novel Science by Sept 11
Most recent projection estimates for the United States through Jan 1, 2020. When exactly the data reflects an acceleration in deaths depends upon the reliability of diagnostics, the accuracy of case identification, and the symptoms people have — does it look like Covid such that it will be labeled a case?
Many claimed that public health experts were wrong, but —
- Projections aren’t “right” or “wrong.” They are the best estimates that reflect the evidence at the time and should include a degree of certainty. They help us understand trends. The same projection may have different meanings by changing the certainty.
- If we must discuss the projections in terms of “right” and “wrong,” then the projections were quite accurate.
On March 13, 2020, most experts believed that a worst-case scenario for the US would cost 200,000 to 1.7 million+ lives. If the US stays the course we are on now, even the estimate that was once perceived to be fear-mongering will seem better in comparison. The US has had 6,363,729 confirmed cases. Of this number, 2.39 million have ended (recovery or death) and 191,000 deaths (JHU CSSE Map, 2020).
Eight percent of confirmed cases have ended in death. That number is likely inflated for a variety of reasons, but it is not unreasonable to think the US could see a 2 or…